Ahead of the 2019 general election, Muhammad Sabiu, Ebenezer Adurokiya, Johnson Babajide, Michael Ovat, in this first part of a series on the realignment of political forces and the implication for the body-politic across states, take a look at political developments in Kaduna, Delta, Benue and Anambra states.
A few months to the 2019 general election, the political landscape across the states of federation has begun to wear a new look, with realignment of politicians and forces already altering the political arrangements in the states ahead of the poll.
While the body-politic is daily becoming accustomed to reports of defections of politicians from one party to the other, with the plot and the setting largely in the National Assembly, where a daddy of all battles is afoot, the import of the defections and fresh alliances among politicians has been reflecting on the politics of the states.
From Akwa Ibom, where a former governor of the state and former Senate Minority Leader, Senator Godswill Akpabio has defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), appearing to give a fillip to the party in a state that has been a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for 19 years, to Kwara where the Senate President, Dr Bukola Saraki’s defection from APC to PDP has renewed a fresh struggle for the soul of the state, the political structures and power equations are daily being altered.
With these defections, realignments of political forces have been foregrounded as all-important determinants for the success or failure of parties and individuals in the 2019 race, with watchers of political developments noting that things might not remain the same across the states where the new alliances had been springing up.
In this first part of the series, Sunday Tribune takes a look at the realignment of forces in Kaduna, Benue, Anambra and Delta states.
KADUNA
In Kaduna State, one of the states that Nigerians would be interested in following its politics in recent times. Since the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2015 governorship election, which ended the 16-year reign of the PDP and threw up Mallam Nasir el-Rufai as the governor of the state, the political space in the state has been heated and active.
Indeed, the ruling party in the state has been enmeshed in one crisis or the other. Two senators elected on the party, Senators Shehu Sani and Suleiman Hunkuyi had since not been able to resolve their differences with the governor. Thus, the outcome of the fight led to the formation of two pressure groups within the party, the Akida and Restoration groups, with all attempts by stakeholders to reconcile the warring parties proving abortive.
Few months to the 2019 general election, however, the political scenario in the state has begun to change with new re-alignments and defections. Among the prominent APC members who have defected to the PDP were Senator Hunkuyi, Isa Ashiru, Usman Bawa and Adamu Lawal. Others were Yakubu Junaidu and John Kwaturu.
But analysts have noted that to understand the current political current in the state, there is the need to look at the power configuration in each of the zones.
In Kaduna South Senatorial District, which was a stronghold of the PDP until 2015, when the APC storm swept the zone for the first time, with the opposition party winning some seats at the state House of Assembly and the National Assembly though the senatorial seat was still retained by the PDP. Three years down the line, discordant views have, however, begun to emerge from the zone, as the APC government is being accused of marginalisation and inability of the to protect citizens of the zone from incessant attacks and killings from the Fulani herdsmen. These claims were, however, dispelled by the governor’s image maker, Samuel Aruwan, who said those accusing the government were being economical with the truth.
With the defection of a member of the National Assembly, Adams Jagaba, from APC to PDP and the presence of a sitting senator of PDP extraction in the zone as well as the performance of the party in the recently concluded local government election, the political equation in southern Kaduna seems to be going in favour of the PDP. However, if the feelers coming out of the zone are true that the people of the zone have dumped the incumbent Senator, Danjuma La’a, for Jagaba, then the party might experience an implosion soon. It is also gathered that while the PDP might still consider Kaduna South district its stronghold, APC has also not rested on its oars, with its in the zone in the recently concluded elections being an indication to this fact. The party had won in three of the eight local government areas, leaving the remaining four local government areas to PDP with one outstanding case in court. Also, the recent announcement by the deputy governor, Bala Bantex that he is going to contest the senatorial seat on the platform of the APC is seen as being capable of strengthening the party in the zone.
This is where political onlookers are keenly watching to see how the various parties will field their candidates. Like the southern zone, the PDP had always won in the zone until 2015 when Senator Shehu Sani of the apc won the senatorial seat. The senator is, however, now engaged in a fierce battle of survival after falling out with the state governor, el-Rufai and the party. With the desire of the senator’s close ally, Uba Sani, to succeed him in the Senate, watchers of political development in the zone have maintained that the scenario has become interesting. Against all odds, Senator Sani, an ardent critic of President Muhammadu Buhari and the governor, has refused to defect to PDP, choosing to remain in APC, a development that meant that the battle line is now drawn between the governor who is behind Uba Sani and the national chairman of the party, Adams Oshiohmole, who is vehemently behind the embattled senator.
According to pundits, the coming days will reveal who will secure the party’s ticket and the post-primary development that will follow is going to be epic and capable of sealing the fate of the APC in the zone. But it seems there is still one person who can salvage the situation: President Buhari.Will he intervene? Only time will tell.
The opposition PDP in the zone has, however, not gone to sleep, as it has continued to strategise over the crisis in the ruling party, though some of the party stalwarts have shown interest in vying for the senatorial seat.
Northern senatorial district
Like the rest of the zone, it has always been won by PDP. This is also the zone of Senator Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi, the immediate past National Caretaker Committee chairman of the PDP. Senator Hunkuyi, a one-time ally of the governor, who has not only parted ways with the governor but has equally defected to PDP, is the senator representing the zone. Equally in the zone, there are the likes of Isa Ashiru, who has also defected from APC to PDP, with speculations rife that both Hunkuyi and Ashiru were going to slug it out for the party’s governorship ticket.
DELTA
The emerging new power configuration in Delta
The PDP appears to still maintain its dominance over other parties in Delta State. Largely, there is no gradual change in power structures in the PDP, which remains the party to beat being the most popular and populous party in the state, much as it has been in power since the return of democracy in 1999. The party can still boast of formidable structures in all the 25 local government areas which have all the chairmen as members of the party.
Former Governor James Onanefe Ibori, a chief from Oghara in Ethiope West Local Government of the State, however, remains an enigma navigating the PDP ship, having nurtured, as it were, several political godsons who traverse the three senatorial districts – Delta Central, Delta South and Delta North. Notable among these is the current governor himself, Mr Ifeanyi Okowa, a medical doctor, who is bracing for a second term amid a shredded and rudderless opposition parties led by the APC.
The APC, many political watchers believe, currently sits comfortably on a Pandora’s box that could mesmerise its chances at the coming 2019 general elections. A cacophony of interests and voices has torn the party apart right from the start. The May 2018 ward, local government and state congresses witnessed paralleled factions which did their thing separately. They produced separate executives with one seen as a protégé to the erstwhile national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, and the other that of current chairman, Adams Oshiomhole. The confusion and shenanigans that accompanied the congresses climaxed at the national congress which held at the Eagle Square in Abuja when the two factions: one, led by Mr Emerhor O’tega, seen as more legitimate and the other led by inimitable Chief Great Ogboru and controversial Senator Ovie Omo Agege squared it up in a free-for-all.
Many pundits have described the entry of the duo of Ogboru and Omo-Agege into the APC, shortly after the 2019 general elections, as a mixed blessing. They had both defected from the Labour Party (LP) on which platform they contested elections as governorship candidate and senatorial candidate respectively. The LP they eventually abandoned in the cold still gropes in the dark. And then the arrival of former South-South PDP chieftain, Dr Cairo Ojuogboh and former speaker of Delta House of Assembly, Mr Victor Ochei, among others from the Delta North and the other two senatorial districts has added to the realignment of forces to possibly wrest power from the PDP which has maintained a stranglehold on the oil-rich state since 1999. Renowned political economist and two-time presidential candidate, Professor Patrick Utomi, Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, former Secretary General of NUPENG, Chief Frank Kokori and the like could pose some threats to the ruling PDP, although who to single out as governorship candidate is a thorny issue that will require much wisdom and sacrifice to achieve. But Ogboru and Omo-Agege’s seeming alignment with tough-talking Oshiomhole on strategies on how to take over Delta could be unsettling for the ruling PDP. And why not given, going by how Edo, Ondo and Ekiti states were recently conquered by the APC. This, however, is only seen possible if Comrade Oshiomhole lays to rest the ongoing battle of supremacy between the two factional executives of Chief Cyril Ogodo and Prophet Jones Erue.
Just recently, some party members in a communiqué read by one Mr Alex Onwudiamu in Asaba, denounced the swearing in and endorsement of the Prophet Erue-led executive by Oshiomhole ahead of the Chief Ogodo-led executive earlier sworn in by the outgone national chairman, Chief John Oyegun.
In anyway, the forces battling for the soul of APC in the state could provide an alternative to the interested, but disgruntled PDP members whose eyes are fixed on seeking their political satisfaction elsewhere, nay the APC. A big fish like the immediate past governor of the state, Mr Emmanuel Uduaghan, a medical doctor, is rumoured to be eyeing the party to fulfill his senatorial ambition which eluded him in 2015 owing to subterfuge from the powers that be then in Abuja. A loss for PDP could be a gain to APC, given the Itsekiri-born grass-rooted political acceptance and pedigree. The rumour that the former governor would be quitting the ruling party in the state became rifer in the wake of Senator Godswill Akpabio’s defection, until he reportedly spoke on the issue a week ago.
Asked to respond to the issue, the Delta South senatorial hopeful and former governor hinted on high-level interventions on his move to quit PDP.
Uduaghan was quoted as saying, “it is not true that I would be defecting either today (last week Wednesday) or tomorrow, but there have been a lot of interventions going on from the likes of Chief Ibori, the governor (Okowa) and some party leaders.
“In the last few days, they have been talking and I am listening to them. So, basically, some elders have intervened on the matter, and I am listening to them.”
The presence of other emerging parties such as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Accord Party and the rest in the political space of the state is yet to find much expression in the three senatorial districts. If there are, they probably remain insignificant and biting less. So, the dominance of the PDP on one hand and the APC on the other remains sacrosanct. Not even the LP, which produced Senator Omo-Agege in 2015 through the courts and Ogboru, its governorship candidate, who was first runner-up in the 2015 governorship election, could muster the kind of strength it did three and a half years ago. Its fair share of power tussle got it depleted to what was left after the elections.
As of today, both APC and PDP have suffered defections, with the massive defection that hit the APC in two senatorial districts and simultaneously shortly after the return of Chief Ibori last year not likely to be forgotten so easily. Over 1,000 members of the party at different times moved over to the PDP in Ughelli North and Aniocha North of the state. On the other hand, in September last year, right-hand man of Senator Alli-Modu Sheriff, former factional chairman of PDP, Dr Ojougboh in the wake of the defeat the faction suffered at the Supreme Court, reportedly led over 14,000 defectors from PDP to the APC. He’s from Agbor, Senator Okowa’s country home in Delta North and is said to be working frantically to join forces with Prof Utomi and others to wrest power from the PDP.
However, except there is a joker, the ruling party may still coast home to victory in 2019, as no significant regrouping can be said to be in the offing, particularly among opposition parties in the state.
BENUE
Benue State is currently witnessing serious political alignment and re-alignment of forces following the defection of the state governor, Samuel Ortom, from the ruling APC to the main opposition PDP.
Prior to this time, the APC under the leadership of Senator George Akume and Governor Samuel Ortom had dominated the political environment until recently when things fell apart between the two.
No one had thought that the cord between the duo could easily be severed until events began to unfold, with those in the know noting that the governor had been suffering serious suffocation from Akume before it dawned on him to seek an alternative platform to find breathing space.
As the saying goes that in politics there is no permanent friend but permanent interests, the defection of the governor to PDP opened a vista of political realignment that is becoming certain to have a huge impact on the politics of 2019 in the state.
Already, the massive support being enjoyed by the realignment of forces in the opposition PDP has begun to make analysts conclude that its fortune in the state might have been increased, with some of them concluding that Ortom’s defection has upped the ante.
Observers note that the fact that Ortom was tipped to win the 2015 governorship election due to the grassroots support he enjoyed and the fact that he dumped the ruling PDP back then to take the ticket of the APC and still won the election meant that his rejoining the PDP has changed the power configuration in the state.
The argument is that as governor, Ortom has been able to shore up his popularity within and beyond the shore of Benue State with the enactment of anti-open grazing law, which reportedly endeared him to the hearts of the people of the state who have been yearning for a true leader that will put an end to the yearly clashes between farmers and herdsmen and its attendants casualties.
Apart from the perceived love and acceptance from the people, it was argued that the fact that the governor was able to take along with him to the PDP about 90 per cent of political office holders both elected and appointed would also define the political landscape in the state ahead of the epic 2019 elections.
Interestingly, his coming to PDP has brought back the old order of David Mark and Gabriel Suswam with their supporters from Benue South and North East Senatorial districts of the state joining in the new alliance.
The manifestation of the new alliance reflected in the sharing of offices at the state House of Assembly after the former speaker, Terkibir Ikyange, was impeached. While Governor Ortom’s loyalist from APC, Titus Uba, emerged the speaker, David Mark’s cousin, Johnson Ahubi, became deputy speaker and one of Suswam’s loyalists in the House, Kester Kyenge, emerged Chief Whip.
It will be recalled that at the time the wind of change mantra blew across the state nay Nigeria in 2015, the Benue South Senatorial, district led by Senator Mark was undaunted and remained the only zone in the state that belonged to the main opposition party. However, with Ortom’s defection and the emerging order, there is the likelihood that the main opposition PDP might have a smooth sail in the forthcoming general election, analysts believe, noting that if the party is able to manage the its primary election and power sharing arrangements well.
But as of now, the power configuration in the state is not without ups and downs, with the new alignment in the PDP already threatened by the attitude of some of the governorship aspirants Ortom met in the party. The aspirants had, in a recent press statement, insisted that there would be no automatic ticket for the governor, a development that political observers noted might rock the boat of the PDP when the time comes.
Ortom’s loyalists and their aspirations as well as that of the governor, it was noted, would rock the boat in the PDP, with the APC said to be a likely destination for quite a number of politicians who might end up being disgruntled in the new PDP arrangement.
According to a political observer, Timothy Ikpa, “the only obstacle facing the PDP in the state is the management of the events leading to the primary and aftermath of the primary election.”
Ikpa, however, submitted that the ruling APC should also not be underrated in the state, saying: “Another thing we should not close our eyes to is the repeat of last general elections. The issue of ordering of election is also paramount. If eventually presidential election comes first, the party that wins at the national level will also have effect on the states of the federation.”
Analysing the change in political structure in the state, Ikpa was of the opinion that for PDP to reclaim its superiority in Benue, things would depended solely on how the national level of the party “applies wisdom in sustaining the support base governor Ortom has brought into the party.”
“I am talking to you with utmost certainty that some of these aspirants are perfecting the plan to defect to APC if a level playing field is not created during the primary election. The greatest obstacle is Suswam. Whether you like it or not, the former governor still has a firm grip of PDP in the two senatorial districts of Tiv land (Benue North-East and Benue North-West).
“The party at national level should be able to device means of give and take; that is looking at some of the strong governorship aspirants and offering them opportunities.
“I think Governor Ortom should also reach out to some of the governorship aspirants to iron out their differences and do the right thing. Ignoring them may spell doom for him. This is politics, during election period everyone is important.
Also contributing, Francis Ada applauded the new realignment forces in the state and expressed hope that it would sail through.
Ada noted that the Benue South Senatorial zone had envisaged the unfolding events, hence the refusal to join the bandwagon in 2015.
Will APGA continue the conquest?
In Anambra State, which has become the official home and stronghold of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), the 2019 political calculations are expected to change soon, with the two other major parties, the APC and the PDP expected to finally recover from the heavy blow they suffered in the last governorship election in the state.
APGA, which has remained the unbeatable political party in the state due to its structure put in place by the founding fathers such as the late Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu and Chief Chewas Okorie, among others gladiators, had become stronger from the era of the former Governor Peter Obi.
The party was to solidify its hold on the state through the back to back victories of Obi and then Willie Obiano, who also won a second term of eight years, defeating the APC and the PDP despite their influence across the country.
Ahead of the 2019 general election, however, attention has shifted to Anambra which though would not hold a governorship election, will be a battle field for presidential candidates seeking support from Ndigbo and local politicians who will jostle for state and National Assemblies seats.
As of today, the main political gladiators in the state include the governor, Senators Andy Ubah, Victor Umeh, Uche Ekwunife, Stella Oduah and former Governor Obi, among others. While Umeh, who is currently representing the central senatorial district, Obi and Ekwunife both from the central senatorial district were had once worked assiduously for the growth and development of APGA and the state with the total support of its Ojukwu, they are now on different political platforms, with a huge political battle said to be afoot ahead of the 2019 election. Ekwunife, a member of APC, who was replaced by Umeh through an Appeal Court judgment, has vowed to return to the upper legislative house in 2019, noting that her new party, APC had all it takes to win the seat for her. On another hand, though Obi has been silent about 2019, analysts have maintained the former governor would be at the heart of plots to swing the state in favour of the PDP, with some observers noting that the former governor might even be made to work with his estranged political godson, Obiano, to garner support for his new party, PDP in the presidential poll.
In Anambra North, where Governor Obiano hails from and currently represented by the former Aviation Minister, Senator Stella Oduah, the realignment of forces is clearer. Oduah, who was elected under the platform of PDP has defected to APGA, a move that is said to have given the ruling party in the state a new outlook of a rampaging party on a continuous conquest that may not end soon.
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